How to Hold Potong Pasir
How to hold onto Potong Pasir
Chiam's weakness is that he is basically a one-man show. He needs to groom a successor. However, his last attempt resulted in his spectacular ouster from his own party, the SDP and his need to start another party, his current SPP. He had thought that Chee Soon Juan had potential, but with hindsight we all know how wrong that was.
[Added 2 June 2006: from a letter to Today, 1 June from Abdul Rahim Osman, who was with Chiam's party from 1991 to 1997.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/121713.asp
Basically, while he respects Chiam's sincerity, he feels that his political strategy is rather limited.
This was an added comment to another article in Today that claimed that Chiam had failed to "nurture future talent" in the party and have been losing potential candidates to the Workers Party.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/120866.asp
The conclusion from the article was that the SDA is still viable but they have challenges to resolve. One of which is future leadership.]
Still the worst thing Chiam can do is to try to run for one more term in the next election. I thought this recent election would be his undoing, but I was wrong. I might still be wrong about the next election, but if the PAP uses the strategy I outlined previously, I believe (in all humility) that it could work.
So Chiam needs a strategy.
I can see no way for him to counter the "Praise Chiam" strategy I had outlined previously, except to appeal to the people to reject the PAP's new attempt to buy their votes. This is a gamble to hold onto votes with no strategy other than that of sheer emotion. However, the "Praise Chiam" strategy also appeals to the emotion, and offers a face-saving route to voters. It is a direct appeal to those who support Chiam.
So what else can he do besides a simple appeal to the people to support him again?
Offer the people a successor.
This is a tricky manoeuvre. The risk is that his supporters may see this as an opportunity to switch camp without being disloyal to Chiam. After all, he made a mistake with Chee, he might well be making another mistake here. The emotional ties they have with Chiam may not extend to his successor.
Unless the successor has an emotional tie to Chiam and to Potong Pasir. Like his daughter.
Chiam's daughter (according to brief mention in the newspapers after his election win) is 30 years old (in 2006) and a journalist. She was only 8 when Chiam first won Potong Pasir. She has been seen with him doing his rounds of Potong Pasir. She practically grew up with Potong Pasir as her "sibling". In 5 years or so, she would be 35 yrs old - a respectable age to stand for election. Not too young, and certainly not old at all. And if she has been picking up tips from her father, she would be more experienced than most opposition candidates in running a constituency.
If Chiam's daughter stands as his successor, they can campaign on continuity, reliability, and commitment. She would be leveraging on the emotional bonds and capital that Chiam has built up over 6 terms - over a quarter of a century. The voters in Potong Pasir may be ready to switch camps with any other successor to Chiam, but his daughter would be a different matter. She is family. To reject her, would also be a rejection of Chiam. If for no other reason, they would want to respect his legacy and give his daughter a chance to prove herself.
How might PAP respond to Chiam's daughter as his successor in the next election? Assuming she's not a female version of Steve Chia (no credibility with the voters), or prone to make ridiculous or unsubstantiated accusations like Chee or JBJ (liable to get sued), they might
a) try their usual gamut of upgrading goodies, while getting the big guns to belittle the achievements of Chiam (to the usual effect for the last 6 elections). But who knows, just because it didn't work the last 6 times doesn't mean it can't work. Some strategy comes into its own time. In time.
b) Try the "Praise Chiam" strategy I'd previously offered. Here the strategy would be blunted because
i) Chiam is stepping down, so appeals to retire him would be meaningless
ii) Offering him a seat on the council would also not make sense as he's not running (besides he can have a seat on his daughter's council)
iii) Offering his daughter a seat in his stead would give her too much credibility
iv) He's offering a living legacy, so offers to name a park after him would not hold the same appeal.
c) Hope that the voters do not extend their emotional bonds and trust for Chiam to his daughter. At least not enough for her to win.
d) Hope that the daughter made a mistake in the nomination papers or threaten the election department staff. :-)
Of course the flaw to this plan is Chiam's daughter's own plan for her life. Does she want to walk in her father's footsteps?
Chiam's weakness is that he is basically a one-man show. He needs to groom a successor. However, his last attempt resulted in his spectacular ouster from his own party, the SDP and his need to start another party, his current SPP. He had thought that Chee Soon Juan had potential, but with hindsight we all know how wrong that was.
[Added 2 June 2006: from a letter to Today, 1 June from Abdul Rahim Osman, who was with Chiam's party from 1991 to 1997.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/121713.asp
Basically, while he respects Chiam's sincerity, he feels that his political strategy is rather limited.
This was an added comment to another article in Today that claimed that Chiam had failed to "nurture future talent" in the party and have been losing potential candidates to the Workers Party.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/120866.asp
The conclusion from the article was that the SDA is still viable but they have challenges to resolve. One of which is future leadership.]
Still the worst thing Chiam can do is to try to run for one more term in the next election. I thought this recent election would be his undoing, but I was wrong. I might still be wrong about the next election, but if the PAP uses the strategy I outlined previously, I believe (in all humility) that it could work.
So Chiam needs a strategy.
I can see no way for him to counter the "Praise Chiam" strategy I had outlined previously, except to appeal to the people to reject the PAP's new attempt to buy their votes. This is a gamble to hold onto votes with no strategy other than that of sheer emotion. However, the "Praise Chiam" strategy also appeals to the emotion, and offers a face-saving route to voters. It is a direct appeal to those who support Chiam.
So what else can he do besides a simple appeal to the people to support him again?
Offer the people a successor.
This is a tricky manoeuvre. The risk is that his supporters may see this as an opportunity to switch camp without being disloyal to Chiam. After all, he made a mistake with Chee, he might well be making another mistake here. The emotional ties they have with Chiam may not extend to his successor.
Unless the successor has an emotional tie to Chiam and to Potong Pasir. Like his daughter.
Chiam's daughter (according to brief mention in the newspapers after his election win) is 30 years old (in 2006) and a journalist. She was only 8 when Chiam first won Potong Pasir. She has been seen with him doing his rounds of Potong Pasir. She practically grew up with Potong Pasir as her "sibling". In 5 years or so, she would be 35 yrs old - a respectable age to stand for election. Not too young, and certainly not old at all. And if she has been picking up tips from her father, she would be more experienced than most opposition candidates in running a constituency.
If Chiam's daughter stands as his successor, they can campaign on continuity, reliability, and commitment. She would be leveraging on the emotional bonds and capital that Chiam has built up over 6 terms - over a quarter of a century. The voters in Potong Pasir may be ready to switch camps with any other successor to Chiam, but his daughter would be a different matter. She is family. To reject her, would also be a rejection of Chiam. If for no other reason, they would want to respect his legacy and give his daughter a chance to prove herself.
How might PAP respond to Chiam's daughter as his successor in the next election? Assuming she's not a female version of Steve Chia (no credibility with the voters), or prone to make ridiculous or unsubstantiated accusations like Chee or JBJ (liable to get sued), they might
a) try their usual gamut of upgrading goodies, while getting the big guns to belittle the achievements of Chiam (to the usual effect for the last 6 elections). But who knows, just because it didn't work the last 6 times doesn't mean it can't work. Some strategy comes into its own time. In time.
b) Try the "Praise Chiam" strategy I'd previously offered. Here the strategy would be blunted because
i) Chiam is stepping down, so appeals to retire him would be meaningless
ii) Offering him a seat on the council would also not make sense as he's not running (besides he can have a seat on his daughter's council)
iii) Offering his daughter a seat in his stead would give her too much credibility
iv) He's offering a living legacy, so offers to name a park after him would not hold the same appeal.
c) Hope that the voters do not extend their emotional bonds and trust for Chiam to his daughter. At least not enough for her to win.
d) Hope that the daughter made a mistake in the nomination papers or threaten the election department staff. :-)
Of course the flaw to this plan is Chiam's daughter's own plan for her life. Does she want to walk in her father's footsteps?
posted by El Lobo Loco | 3:29 AM
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