How to get people to give up their seats to pregnant women

Those signs over the "courtesy" seats on public transports - "Please give up this seat to someone who needs it more than you" are just not working.

An alternative sign:

"If I'm sitting in this seat, I'm either elderly, disabled, pregnant or just an inconsiderate bastard and a disgrace to my family. And, yes, I'm only pretending to sleep/read this book/newspaper."

How to Hold Potong Pasir

How to hold onto Potong Pasir

Chiam's weakness is that he is basically a one-man show. He needs to groom a successor. However, his last attempt resulted in his spectacular ouster from his own party, the SDP and his need to start another party, his current SPP. He had thought that Chee Soon Juan had potential, but with hindsight we all know how wrong that was.

[Added 2 June 2006: from a letter to Today, 1 June from Abdul Rahim Osman, who was with Chiam's party from 1991 to 1997.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/121713.asp
Basically, while he respects Chiam's sincerity, he feels that his political strategy is rather limited.
This was an added comment to another article in Today that claimed that Chiam had failed to "nurture future talent" in the party and have been losing potential candidates to the Workers Party.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/120866.asp
The conclusion from the article was that the SDA is still viable but they have challenges to resolve. One of which is future leadership.]

Still the worst thing Chiam can do is to try to run for one more term in the next election. I thought this recent election would be his undoing, but I was wrong. I might still be wrong about the next election, but if the PAP uses the strategy I outlined previously, I believe (in all humility) that it could work.

So Chiam needs a strategy.

I can see no way for him to counter the "Praise Chiam" strategy I had outlined previously, except to appeal to the people to reject the PAP's new attempt to buy their votes. This is a gamble to hold onto votes with no strategy other than that of sheer emotion. However, the "Praise Chiam" strategy also appeals to the emotion, and offers a face-saving route to voters. It is a direct appeal to those who support Chiam.

So what else can he do besides a simple appeal to the people to support him again?

Offer the people a successor.

This is a tricky manoeuvre. The risk is that his supporters may see this as an opportunity to switch camp without being disloyal to Chiam. After all, he made a mistake with Chee, he might well be making another mistake here. The emotional ties they have with Chiam may not extend to his successor.

Unless the successor has an emotional tie to Chiam and to Potong Pasir. Like his daughter.

Chiam's daughter (according to brief mention in the newspapers after his election win) is 30 years old (in 2006) and a journalist. She was only 8 when Chiam first won Potong Pasir. She has been seen with him doing his rounds of Potong Pasir. She practically grew up with Potong Pasir as her "sibling". In 5 years or so, she would be 35 yrs old - a respectable age to stand for election. Not too young, and certainly not old at all. And if she has been picking up tips from her father, she would be more experienced than most opposition candidates in running a constituency.

If Chiam's daughter stands as his successor, they can campaign on continuity, reliability, and commitment. She would be leveraging on the emotional bonds and capital that Chiam has built up over 6 terms - over a quarter of a century. The voters in Potong Pasir may be ready to switch camps with any other successor to Chiam, but his daughter would be a different matter. She is family. To reject her, would also be a rejection of Chiam. If for no other reason, they would want to respect his legacy and give his daughter a chance to prove herself.

How might PAP respond to Chiam's daughter as his successor in the next election? Assuming she's not a female version of Steve Chia (no credibility with the voters), or prone to make ridiculous or unsubstantiated accusations like Chee or JBJ (liable to get sued), they might

a) try their usual gamut of upgrading goodies, while getting the big guns to belittle the achievements of Chiam (to the usual effect for the last 6 elections). But who knows, just because it didn't work the last 6 times doesn't mean it can't work. Some strategy comes into its own time. In time.

b) Try the "Praise Chiam" strategy I'd previously offered. Here the strategy would be blunted because
i) Chiam is stepping down, so appeals to retire him would be meaningless
ii) Offering him a seat on the council would also not make sense as he's not running (besides he can have a seat on his daughter's council)
iii) Offering his daughter a seat in his stead would give her too much credibility
iv) He's offering a living legacy, so offers to name a park after him would not hold the same appeal.

c) Hope that the voters do not extend their emotional bonds and trust for Chiam to his daughter. At least not enough for her to win.

d) Hope that the daughter made a mistake in the nomination papers or threaten the election department staff. :-)

Of course the flaw to this plan is Chiam's daughter's own plan for her life. Does she want to walk in her father's footsteps?

How the PAP can win Potong Pasir

The PAP has been going about it all wrong from the start.

First they denigrated Chiam’s achievement.
Then they threw in their big guns.
Then they offered upgrading.
And Chiam still won 6 elections.

You'd think the PAP would have learnt? The people want to see a fair fight. They want to see Sitoh vs Chiam. Not Sitoh, PM, MM, SM vs Chiam. The people know how much Chiam has done with what little he has. For the PAP to highlight shortcomings, or less than sterling performance by Chiam just seems unfair to the people when the constraints are seen to be of PAP’s making.

So can PAP win Potong Pasir next time? All along, PAP has taken the rather passive “wait for the people to come to their senses and realise what goodies they are missing.” They’ve waited for 6 elections and 22 years.

What’s their plan for the next election? More of the same?

This is a thought experiment. A “what-if” situation.

In 3 - 5 years, if Chiam again contest the Potong Pasir ward, what should the PAP do?

Firstly, if Chiam runs again, the goodwill he has built up over the years will be an advantage that will be hard to overcome. Secondly, the recent election and past elections have shown that the people of Potong Pasir are not bought over by the PAP’s offer of upgrading and other goodies. The connection they have with Chiam is more personal, more emotional. Thirdly, Sitoh has also made a connection with the people and has built up quite a capital of goodwill. What the PAP should do is let him be himself and fight the battle on his own. Throwing heavyweights to bolster his campaign only makes him seem weak and dependant. The PAP may be tempted to shift him over to another GRC to reward him for his hard work over 2 terms there, but they should resist that temptation. Fourthly, the people of Potong Pasir seem to feel that they have the best of both worlds with two MPs looking after their interests.

Here’s a scenario for the next election. The assumptions are
1) Chiam runs for yet another term.
2) Sitoh challenges again.
3) All other things (no terrorism, bird flu, political scandals and issues) remains equal (in other words, this is what PAP should have done in the last election)

Sitoh should be allowed to fight the campaign on his own. Of course the PAP heavyweights can lend support from afar, but not ‘mother’ him.
His campaign/platform should cover these points:
a) Chiam has done a fantastic job with limited resources over the last 6 terms.
b) He had earned his MP’s pension many times over (an MP is entitled to pension if he is elected in parliament for 2 terms or more).
c) But age is catching up with him and he should be allowed to enjoy his retirement instead of working so hard with meagre resources.
d) But if he wants to work for the people, then he should be allowed to, and the people should make it easier for him to do so. How? Vote in Sitoh.
e) Sitoh should promise that if he is elected, he can offer Chiam a seat on his management committee (or whatever committee or town council) as advisor or consultant, so Chiam would still have a hand in the service of the people. At the same time, Potong Pasir would enjoy all the benefits of being a PAP ward (more funds, upgrading, etc).
f) Sitoh can also promise that in recognition of the quarter of a century or so that Chiam has dedicated to Potong Pasir, a park in Potong Pasir would be named in Chiam’s honour.
g) Therefore the people of Potong Pasir is not being asked to vote against Chiam, but to vote to recognise Chiam’s efforts and contribution, vote to make things easier for Chiam, and vote to honour him. (In other words, give the people of Potong Pasir a way to vote PAP without voting against Chiam).

How might Chiam respond to these offers and acknowledgements?
The usual and initial response anticipated (and suggested counters) are
a) denounce it all as a PAP trick, and hypocrisy. (Sitoh’s response should be that PAP always carry out what it promises and Chiam should know that.)
b) declare that he would not take up Sitoh’s offer as it is against his principles. (Response: It is also not PAP’s practice to offer opposition members representation in their committee, but for the good of the people of Potong Pasir, the PAP is willing to bend the rules in this case. PAP hopes that if Sitoh is elected, and when they offer the seat on the committee to Chiam, he would also accept for the good of Potong Pasir.)
c) he is still fit and healthy enough to serve one more term. (Response: Of course he can, otherwise there would be no question of offering him a seat on the committee. And of course it is for the people to decide if he should continue to serve with limited resources, trying hard to make ends meet, or whether to vote to give Chiam more resources with the PAP.)

Why this Scenario won’t work?
1) PAP too inflexible to use the “praise your opponent to death” approach.
2) PAP rules too rigid to offer Chiam a seat on the committee.
3) PAP too aghast about honouring an opposition MP when their own MPs don’t get such treatment (have we seen any Tan Cheng Bock park?)
4) PAP moves Sitoh to a GRC to reward him for his efforts over two terms in Potong Pasir. Any other PAP candidate would have to start from scratch, to build up rapport and trust and bonds, and the voters of Potong Pasir are slow to warm up.
5) PAP worries about what it means to other constituencies. But Chiam is a unique situation.

Next: Chiam’s possible counter strategy

Dialectic Materialism Singapore Style

What is Dialectic Materialism?

Kiasu, Kiasi, Kiaboh, Kia Zhenghu.